The NFL offseason always brings a lot of movement, but how does it affect the fantasy outlooks of the players moving on? Sometimes, it could be terrific (Mark Ingram RB Ravens 2019-20 and Jared Cook TE Saints 2019-20), and sometimes it can flat out be awful (Le’Veon Bell RB Jets 2019-20 and Odell Beckham Jr. WR Browns 2019-20). Here are a few high profile moves and why you should love or dismiss the new change of scenery.
Tom Brady QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2019-20-4,057YDS 24TD 8INT 53.7QBR
Tom Brady has finally left his throne in New England and took his talents to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are a team desperate to make the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, and Brady is, well, the GOAT. The Bucs have set him up for some massive offensive numbers, but I am still hesitant about the hype.
No Doubt Brady walked into a team with an incredible cast of offensive players, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, and Ronald Jones. And just in case, he brought Rob Gronkowski with him to round out the team. But what the Bucs lack is a genuine running back to make a real threat of a running game. It will put a lot of pressure on Brady. I know he has handled in the past, but he is also not getting any younger.
The offensive line for the Bucs was much improved last season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bucs’ offense at 7th in the league. This better offense also helped Jameis Winston get 5,109YDS, earning him the passing yards title last year. Brady needs a clean pocket. If the Bucs want to get into the playoffs, the offensive line needs to meet last year’s productivity level.
Brady will have to learn a new system. Head coach Bruce Arians’s air attack offense is a lot different than what Josh McDaniels runs in New England. Arians’s system relies on big chunk plays with deep-ball throws to their talented WR. If you take a closer look at the stats, Brady ranked 4th in the NFL in deep-ball statistics, and that was without deep-ballplayers on the Pats.
Brady is Brady, and he is going to have a terrific year. However, I would be hesitant with how high people are taking Brady. I would value him as the 6th best QB, but QB has become such a deep position. I will almost always advise waiting as long as you can to draft one. Brady will finish as a top 5 QB, but the unknown of what he will be with his new team is too much of a question mark for me to overpay for him in most drafts.
DeAndre Hopkins WR Arizona Cardinals-2019-20-104REC 1.165YDS 7TD 11.2AVG
DeAndre Hopkins is widely regarded as one of the best WR’s in the whole NFL and deservedly so. But I am hesitant to draft Hopkins as early as you will have to secure him this season. He was the first WR taken in most fantasy drafts last year, and, unless it was a PPR league, he was pretty disappointing for where he got drafted.
The Houston Texans offensive system did not have a lot of skill players around. However, Hopkins still put up numbers every season; out of the seven seasons in the NFL, Hopkins had in five out of seven seasons he recorded at least 1100 yards receiving and 100 receptions, in 3 of 7 seasons, and at least ten touchdown receptions in 3 of 7 seasons.
Houston peppered Hopkins with targets, but the Arizona Cardinals like to spread the ball around, keeping the defense from keying onto one player. The Cardinals will have many mouths to feed in this offense, including Kenyan Drake (643YDS 123ATT 5.2AVG 8TD 28REC 35TGTS 171YDS 6.1AVG), who is going to be featured all season, and WR’s Christian Kirk 68REC 709YDS 3TD 10.4AVG 13GP and Larry Fitzgerald 75REC 804YDS 4TD 10.7AVG 16GP.
Overall, this offense should be a lot of fun to watch. It is hard to see how any team will be able to stop all these weapons on the field. But as far as Hopkins, the Cardinals’ loaded offense does hurt his value. Remember that Hopkins is learning a new offense and needs time to gel with his new QB, second-year phenom Kyler Murray. The way training camps are being run, and without preseason games, it may be even tougher for new players to find their groove. I still love Hopkins as an overall WR but count me out on Dhop this season unless he falls to round three or later.
Eric Ebron TE Pittsburgh Steelers – 2019-2020-31REC 375YDS 3TD 12.1AVG
Eric Ebron was one of the top TEs (66REC 750YDS 13TD 11.4AVG) two years ago. With the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, which left Jacoby Brissett at QB, the play became inconsistent at best, and Ebron’s stock took a dive.
Ebron is now going to a system that has an all-time great at the QB position, Ben Roethlisberger. More importantly, he will not have any other real competition at TE, so he should end up with the starting spot and run with it all season.
Tight end is a position I do not like to invest in, so if you are like me and do not plan on taking one of the top TE’s this year, holdout for Ebron. Shore up all your other spots, make sure you have 2-3 running backs, 3-5 wide receivers, and you might even be able to take a backup QB before Ebron is taken.
Ebron has the potential to be one of the biggest steals in the draft, and nothing feels better or helps fantasy teams more than the late pick that turns out to be a found treasure. The Steelers do not have many red-zone options on the team, other than Ebron, so I think he is going to be great for TDs and might challenge most TDs by a TE this year.
Big Ben coming back makes this offense much more dangerous, and Ebron should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Sign me up for all shares on Ebron this year. He is well worth the gamble of a basement-bargain price that could return a league championship.